NESTLE

Nestlé Nigeria is a high-quality consumer franchise demonstrating a convincing earnings recovery — seven consecutive profitable quarters since Q4 2024 — with H1 2026 revenue of ₦650.8bn (+12% YoY), PBT of ₦126.8bn (+43%), and a normalised ROE of 83.5% on recovering equity, all validating that the FY2024 loss was a non-cash FX revaluation event rather than an operating impairment. However, at a current price of ₦2,800, the stock trades at a market-data implied P/E of ~18.6x and an implied 21.1x on our filing-derived EPS of ₦132.42, representing a ~25.5% premium to our peer-median base fair value of ₦2,087 — meaning investors are paying a meaningful premium for a franchise that, while genuinely exceptional, is not cheap. The committee score returns 'cautious' (net score -1), driven by negative risk and valuation-gap factors that we concur with, and the position sits above the top of our bull-case band (₦2,609), warranting a hold rather than new accumulation.

Verdict published 2026-08-18 · fundamentals through H1-2026 · reviewed as the data changes