MTNN
Investo's verdict, shared with you
No fair value published
The derivation ran and was refused by our own plausibility checks — so we publish no number rather than a plausible-looking one.
Why
The derivation failed our plausibility check
The computed value landed outside the 0.4×–2.5× band that real price targets occupy. A result that far from the traded price means one of our inputs is wrong, not that the market is wrong by that much — so we publish nothing rather than clamp it into range.
What we would need
- A per-share input (earnings or book value) that reconciles to the latest audited totals.
Show what the engine computed
Rejected figure · ₦179.16 — floor — raw base ₦179.16 is 0.22x price. This figure is shown only to document what was refused; it is not an estimate and no upside is computed from it.
Failed plausibility rail · Fair value hit our plausibility bounds: floor — raw base ₦179.16 is 0.22x price. The published base is the rail, not a derivation.
MTN Nigeria is Nigeria's dominant telecommunications operator with 92.2 million subscribers (H1 2026) and a demonstrably improving P&L — H1 2026 PAT surged 70.6% YoY to ₦707.5bn on service revenue of ₦3.0 trillion (+25.9% YoY), underpinning a ROE of ~39% on filing-derived data and a market-data implied ROE of 316% (reflecting a thin but recovering equity base post-FX stress). The franchise is high-quality and cash-generative (H1 2026 free cash flow of ₦712.7bn), but the stock trades at a premium multiple (17.4x P/B per independent data source data; 11.6x P/E on independently sourced EPS of ₦53.07) that demands sustained execution in an operationally demanding macro environment. Our formal valuation is unreliable due to the absence of EBITDA and subscriber/ARPU data required for proper telco methodology, so near-term sizing discipline is warranted.
Verdict published 2026-09-05 · fundamentals through Q2-2026 · reviewed as the data changes
Source: NGX live market data · Investo intelligence. Educational only — not financial advice.