MANSARD

AXA Mansard Insurance trades at ₦12.00, implying a 1.75x P/B against a BVPS of ₦6.86, a 54–93% premium to the model's blended fair value range of ₦6.21–₦9.70 (base ₦7.78) derived from peer-median P/B of 1.13x and a justified P/B of 1.14x anchored on ROE of 20% and CoE of 18%. While the underlying business generates a creditable 20% ROE on a Q3-2026 earnings forecast of ₦5.13bn PAT on ₦139.7bn insurance revenue, the current market price embeds an expectations premium the data cannot substantiate, and the committee score registers net negative (-1) with quality and momentum both flagged negative. Until the stock re-rates toward intrinsic value or fundamentals demonstrably accelerate to justify the premium, the risk/reward is unattractive.

Verdict published 2026-09-05 · fundamentals through Q2-2026 · reviewed as the data changes