FTNCOCOA
Investo's verdict, shared with you
No fair value published
The derivation ran and was refused by our own plausibility checks — so we publish no number rather than a plausible-looking one.
Why
The derivation failed our plausibility check
The computed value landed outside the 0.4×–2.5× band that real price targets occupy. A result that far from the traded price means one of our inputs is wrong, not that the market is wrong by that much — so we publish nothing rather than clamp it into range.
What we would need
- A per-share input (earnings or book value) that reconciles to the latest audited totals.
Show what the engine computed
Rejected figure · ₦1.99 — floor — raw base ₦1.99 is 0.23x price. This figure is shown only to document what was refused; it is not an estimate and no upside is computed from it.
Failed plausibility rail · Fair value hit our plausibility bounds: floor — raw base ₦1.99 is 0.23x price. The published base is the rail, not a derivation.
FTN Cocoa Processors has staged a dramatic operational turnaround in H1 2026, swinging from a ₦1.14bn PBT loss to a ₦657.66m profit on revenue of ₦4.13bn (+128.5% YoY), suggesting a genuine recovery in processing volumes and/or cocoa price tailwinds. However, the current market price of ₦8.50 implies a P/B of approximately 42x on a book value per share of ₦0.20, a multiple that is structurally indefensible given the company's near-zero equity base, chronically negative historical ROE, and the engine's raw model-based fair value of ₦1.99 — itself a ceiling, not a floor. The stock's price appreciation appears to be momentum- and sentiment-driven rather than anchored in fundamental value.
Verdict published 2026-09-05 · fundamentals through FY2025 · reviewed as the data changes
Verdict moderated to Watch — Avoid was refused
Fair value hit our plausibility bounds, so there is no defensible valuation behind an extreme call.
Source: NGX live market data · Investo intelligence. Educational only — not financial advice.