FIRSTHOLDCO
Investo's verdict, shared with you
No fair value published
The derivation ran and was refused by our own plausibility checks. We publish no number rather than a plausible-looking one.
Why · 4 checks
Our valuation methods disagree
The earnings-based and book-based readings of this company differ by more than 2.5×. That spread is real information, but averaging it would manufacture a number no method actually produced.
The derivation failed our plausibility check
The computed value landed outside the 0.4×–2.5× band that real price targets occupy. A result that far from the traded price means one of our inputs is wrong, not that the market is wrong by that much — so we publish nothing rather than clamp it into range.
Implied earnings multiple is far from the peer group
At the computed value this company would trade at a P/E a long way from its sector median. Either the earnings input or the peer anchor is unreliable.
A per-share input was repaired or refused
One of the per-share figures behind this valuation did not agree with the audited totals it should reconcile to, so it was recomputed from those totals or rejected outright.
What we would need
- Earnings and book value drawn from the same set of accounts, so the two legs can be reconciled.
- A per-share input (earnings or book value) that reconciles to the latest audited totals.
- A verified earnings figure, or a peer group with enough clean constituents to anchor against.
- A per-share figure in the source data that reconciles to the reported totals.
Show what the engine computed
Rejected figure · ₦46.81 — floor — raw base ₦46.81 is 0.31x price. This figure is shown only to document what was refused; it is not an estimate and no upside is computed from it.
Method spread · 5.36× between the highest and lowest valuation leg.
Methods disagree · The valuation legs disagree by 5.36x (Blended P/E band ₦14.6 vs Blended P/B band ₦78.24 vs Justified P/B ₦32.64). No point estimate is defensible until the inputs are reconciled.
Failed plausibility rail · Fair value hit our plausibility bounds: floor — raw base ₦46.81 is 0.31x price. The published base is the rail, not a derivation.
Implied P/E off peers · Implied P/E at base 14.92x is 2.51x the sector median 5.95x.
Figure corrected · independently sourced EPS ₦0.91 is 0.29x our filing-derived ₦3.14 — one of the two earnings bases is wrong; the P/E leg is unreliable until resolved
Input quality · independently sourced EPS ₦0.91 is 0.29x our filing-derived ₦3.14 — one of the two earnings bases is wrong; the P/E leg is unreliable until resolved
Independent cross-check · independent data source eps 0.91 REJECTED — it neither reproduces the traded price via our independent data source own pe_ratio 16.37 nor agrees with our filing-derived EPS 3.14. Treat independently sourced EPS as unreliable for this name.
First HoldCo Plc is a systemically important Nigerian financial holding company with ₦30.6tn in total assets and strong H1 2026 earnings (PAT ₦526bn on revenue of ₦1.38tn), yet at ₦149.95 per share the stock trades at approximately 1.84x book (BVPS ₦81.60) and an implied 47.8x trailing P/E on filing-derived EPS of ₦3.14 — multiples that are materially indefensible relative to its own history (median P/B 0.58x, median P/E 3.37x) and sector peers (median P/B 1.34x, median P/E 5.95x). The price has been driven by a high-profile insider accumulation campaign (Otedola/Calvados acquired >381mn shares between August 6–24, 2026 at ₦131–140), but fundamental value does not support the current level; the committee score returns a net score of –1 with Value and Quality both flagged negative.
Verdict published 2026-09-05 · fundamentals through H1 2026 (half-year ended June 30, 2026) · reviewed as the data changes
Verdict moderated to Watch — Avoid was refused
Fair value hit our plausibility bounds, so there is no defensible valuation behind an extreme call.
Source: NGX live market data · Investo intelligence. Educational only — not financial advice.