ELLAHLAKES
Investo's verdict, shared with you
No fair value published
The derivation ran and was refused by our own plausibility checks — so we publish no number rather than a plausible-looking one.
Why
The derivation failed our plausibility check
The computed value landed outside the 0.4×–2.5× band that real price targets occupy. A result that far from the traded price means one of our inputs is wrong, not that the market is wrong by that much — so we publish nothing rather than clamp it into range.
What we would need
- A per-share input (earnings or book value) that reconciles to the latest audited totals.
Show what the engine computed
Rejected figure · ₦80.60 — ceiling — raw base ₦80.60 is 8.96x price. This figure is shown only to document what was refused; it is not an estimate and no upside is computed from it.
Failed plausibility rail · Fair value hit our plausibility bounds: ceiling — raw base ₦80.60 is 8.96x price. The published base is the rail, not a derivation.
Ellah Lakes Plc is a pre-commercial-scale Nigerian agri-business trading at ₦9.00 against a book value of ₦6.41/share (1.40x P/B), generating negligible revenue of ₦67.1 million against a ₦34.7 billion market capitalisation and recording a pre-tax loss of ₦1.60 billion for the 12 months to July 2025 — a combination of extreme revenue-to-market-cap dislocation, negative ROE of -8.5%, and unresolved land-title litigation that makes the stock uninvestable at current pricing without confirmed operational inflection. The H1 2026 filing signals a step-change in commercial activity (₦533.9 million revenue versus ₦67.1 million for the full prior year), which, if sustained, could reframe the investment case, but this uplift is unaudited and insufficient on its own to justify the valuation. The balance-sheet recapitalisation via conversion of directors' loans to equity is credit-positive but does not resolve the fundamental question of when and whether the business generates sustainable cash earnings.
Verdict published 2026-09-05 · fundamentals through 12 months ended 31 July 2025 · reviewed as the data changes
Source: NGX live market data · Investo intelligence. Educational only — not financial advice.