AIICO
Investo's verdict, shared with you
No fair value published
The derivation ran and was refused by our own plausibility checks. We publish no number rather than a plausible-looking one.
Why · 2 checks
Our valuation methods disagree
The earnings-based and book-based readings of this company differ by more than 2.5×. That spread is real information, but averaging it would manufacture a number no method actually produced.
Our own committee reads this differently
Our rules-based factor scorecard scores this company's Value factor the opposite way to our fair value. Both cannot be right, so neither is presented as settled.
What we would need
- Earnings and book value drawn from the same set of accounts, so the two legs can be reconciled.
- Agreement between the filing-derived valuation and the vendor ratios the committee scores.
Show what the engine computed
Method spread · 2.82× between the highest and lowest valuation leg.
Methods disagree · The valuation legs disagree by 2.82x (Blended P/B band ₦3.22 vs Justified P/B ₦1.14). No point estimate is defensible until the inputs are reconciled.
Committee disagrees · Committee scores Value POSITIVE (constructive) but our base fair value implies -31.1% downside.
AIICO Insurance Plc trades at ₦3.81, implying a 1.34x P/B on reported BVPS of ₦2.85 — a premium to the peer-median of 1.13x that is difficult to justify given a Q1-2026 ROE of only ~5%, which implies a justified P/B of roughly 0.40x on a cost-of-equity estimate of 18%. While the company demonstrates meaningful scale (total assets ₦652.8bn, Q1 GWP trajectory supportive of the ₦168.7bn FY forecast) and a positive earnings trend under IFRS 17, the current price embeds expectations that are materially ahead of demonstrated fundamental returns. The stock screens expensive on a fundamentals-anchored basis, and the confidence in our valuation is constrained (score: 54/100) by limited clean annual history and a wide inter-method spread.
Verdict published 2026-09-05 · fundamentals through Q1-2026 · reviewed as the data changes
Verdict moderated to Watch — Avoid was refused
Committee scores Value POSITIVE (overall constructive); an "avoid" against our own committee is not publishable without a re-derivation.
Source: NGX live market data · Investo intelligence. Educational only — not financial advice.